Oscar Outcomes

Dull hosts and very few upsets = a lackluster ceremony.

On a previous blog post, I made correct predictions in four out of seven categories, including Best Picture (The King’s Speech). For a full list of nominees and winners click below:

http://oscar.go.com/

Of the 24 categories I correctly predicted 18 wins on Oscar.com – not bad for my first year of Oscar forecasting! Check out the link below for a sample of my pre-Oscar post predictions:

https://forloveoffilm.wordpress.com/2011/02/09/my-oscar-pics/

Disappointment aside (David Fincher was not properly recognized), most categories held no surprises. However, the Live Action Short Films pick threw me for a loop!

I viewed all five short films last weekend and was blow away by “The Confession”. It was nuanced, heavy and full of smart biblical references. I thought “The Confession” to be the strongest by far. “God of Love” was a distant second and “The Crush” and “Wish 143” tied at a close third. So I was shocked when the “RomCom-esque” short film “God of Love” won the Oscar. Granted the winning film is adorable and far more “approachable” and lighthearted than my pick but I can’t help but feel that “The Confession” was robbed! Was I the only one watching the short films?!? Perhaps the outcome of this category is similar to that of Best Picture. If you can make the audience feel good, you win the Oscar….

My Oscar Picks….

For those who love film, the Academy Award Show (Oscars) is the event of the year – the Super Bowl of Cinema! The Academy Awards are arguably the most prestigious awards in the industry. For this reason, the pre-Oscar season brings lots of speculation and I always enjoy throwing my two cents in….

Best Animated Feature Film

Before I jump into animation, I have to say that “The Illusionist” was a super-cute, heartwarming film that you should see (even if it doesn’t win). But the winner here will be:

-“How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois”
-“The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet
-“Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich (PICK)

Best Cinematography

Yikes! This REALLY is a tough one. Because I’m trained in photography cinematography is my favorite aspect of film. I loved the intimate camera shots in “Black Swan” as well as the ambitious and theatrical shots in “Incepton”. I also enjoyed the picturesque scenes in “True Grit”, the drama and detail in “The King’s Speech”, and the seamless creativity in “The Social Network”? I’m truly stumped on this one, folks. But if I have to pick one:

– “Black Swan” Matthew Libatique
– “Inception” Wally Pfister
– “The King’s Speech” Danny Cohen
– “The Social Network” Jeff Cronenweth
– “True Grit” Roger Deakins (PICK)

Best Direction

“The Kings Speech” is a GREAT movie but in my opinion there are only two films in this contest: “Black Swan” and “The Social Network”. There, I said it…

– “Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
– “The Fighter” David O. Russell
– “The King’s Speech” Tom Hooper
– “The Social Network” David Fincher (PICK)
– “True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Best Original Screenplay

This is a tough one and I almost want to give the Oscar to “Another Year” or “127 Hours” but I think the money maker of the year will win here:

– “Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
– “The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson; 
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
– “Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan (PICK)
– “The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
– “The King’s Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler

Best Actress in a Lead Role

There are some amazing performances in this category. Unfortunately, one actress far outshined the rest. No competition here:

– Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
– Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
– Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone”
– Natalie Portman in “Black Swan” (PICK)
– Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

Best Actor in a Lead Role

This is yet another category where I believe there is a shoe-in. This is also the ONLY category that, I believe, truly belongs to this year’s fan favorite:

– Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
– Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
– Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
– Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech” (PICK)
– James Franco in “127 Hours”

Best Picture

Can I first say that the Academy’s decision to nominate 10 films instead of 5 is sort of like a teacher deciding to lower the standard of an “A” from 90% to 80%? With that said, there are only 5 films in this category (in my mind at least). They are “Black Swan”, “Inception”, “The King’s Speech”, “The Social Network”, and “True Grit”. “127 Hours” is an honorable mention. Typically Best Picture and Best Director go hand in hand but that may not happen this year. I personally think “The Social Network” and “Black Swan” are two of the strongest pieces of film I have seen in quite a while. “The Social Network” is highbrow, innovative, and perfectly executed – much like the classic film it has been compared to – “Citizen Kane” (also about a less-than-scrupulous mogul). Although it is probably the strongest film on this list, I highly doubt it will win. Much like “Citizen Kane” in the 1940’s, my premonition tells me that The Facebook movie will be overlooked for the fan favorite:

– “Black Swan”
– “The Fighter”
– “Inception”
– “The Kids Are All Right”
– “The King’s Speech” (PICK)
– “127 Hours”
– “The Social Network”
– “Toy Story 3”
– “True Grit”
– “Winter’s Bone”